There are no official numbers or rates of Shiny Pokemon encounters in Pokemon GO.

It is one of the many differences that a Pokémon can have within its species. Over time, more and more Pokémon have become shiny-eligible. A Shiny Pokemon … For each of the above categories taken in aggregate, here is what our Researchers found (data broken down by species can be found in the appendix):

Our Researchers encountered 12,934 Normal Castform during the event, of which 829 were shiny; this is a rate of 1 in 15.6, with a 95% CI of 14.6 to 16.7 encounters per shiny. Finally, data submission for the Egg pool project is restricted to more veteran researchers. - Get the latest info on Shiny Pokémon, Raid Bosses, Research, and more in Pokémon GO from Leek Duck, a Trainer from NYC. The following lists the evolution families available as Shiny along with their respective release dates, corresponding events, and Shiny rates. Finally, our data for certain other encounter types (such as Spinda in Field Research and Shadow Pokémon from Team Rocket leader battles) is sufficient to conclude that their shiny rates are higher than the base rate, but too preliminary to categorize their rates precisely. Since the Halloween 2017 Event, our Silph Researchers have donned their walking shoes and hatched 6,000+ eggs whose species had available shinies.Thus far, it remains unclear whether the base shiny rate for egg hatches is higher … ©2020 The Silph Road | All Rights Reserved |, Study: Mythbusters Part I: Influences on Pokémon Movesets, Discovery: Ultra Unlock 2020: Unova Week Genesect and Roggenrola Shiny Rates.

Curiously, the Aerodactyl shiny rate from Field Research was indistinguishable from its Raid boss shiny rate during this event². Evidence for some bias in our reporting can be seen when we compare the shiny rates for our newest researchers (who make up a slight majority of our data), and our more seasoned, senior members. One final speculation we would put forward is that the shiny rate is independent of the method of obtaining the Pokémon, dependent only on the Pokémon species. I cover social games, video games, technology and that whole gray area that happens when technology and consumers collide.

At first I thought this Strange Egg thing was just going to be the addition of some eggs, but I should have known that Niantic never misses the chance for an event these days. Only the Shiny forms of certain Pokémon have been released, often coinciding with a special event or update. The go-to source for comic book and superhero movie fans. As more data is included over time, we anticipate more clarity on these shiny rate boosts in Field Research. Additionally, since the primary purpose of the Egg project is to track the distribution of species in the Egg pool rather than to track shiny rates, this project may be less susceptible than others to reporting bias. Our review of Raid, Egg, and other shiny data reveals that Niantic has used a consistent shiny rate of approximately 1 in 20 for Legendary Raids, and approximately 1 in 10 for three-hour Raid events. Proceed with caution, travelers – this conjecture is likely to change with more data! This gives a shiny rate of approximately: with a 95% confidence interval of 1 in 50 to 1 in 70 for this encounter type. When a Shiny Pokémon appears in the wild or from its Poké Ball, it is surrounded by a flash of stars or light, which is accompanied by a pinging sound effect.Individual Pokémon cannot change their Shininess. Deino and it’s shiny forms are very hard to hatch, as it’s available only from 10KM and 12KM Strange Eggs, and the chances of getting/hatching one are very low, or to be more precise 1.9%.

Be forewarned — while there is strong evidence for many of the rates we’ll look at, other parts of this article may lead to more questions than answers! We used this test instead of a Pearson’s chi-squared test because of the small sample size.

When the game first launched no shinies were available. For example, our observed shiny rate for Bonsly is much higher than that of other baby Pokémon, although with substantial data on 11 different baby Pokémon, it’s not necessarily surprising that we might see an outlier.

Our researchers hatched 351 baby Pokémon during this event, and were rewarded 5 shiny Pokémon. As you might expect, if the probability was actually lower than our reported value, the seniors are closer to the true rate than our junior members. Is it possible that at least two of these categories are using the same boosted shiny rate?

At first blush, 1 in 450 seems like a relatively nice round number to use.

Meltan, Spinda) and/or for which we have data that is too limited to draw any significant conclusions. However, in Pokémon GO not every Pokémon can be shiny. Hi there and thank you for your comment.

Every egg category has its share of harder to hatch Pokemon. Shiny encounters are random for each player, meaning that if two players attempt to catch the same Pokémon, one player may encounter a Shiny Pokémon and the other may not.

(We have too little data on Happiny, Mime Jr., and Riolu to draw any conclusions about them.) This is not sufficient to approximate any boosted shiny rate for Absol, but it is sufficient to confirm that its encounters also had a higher shiny rate than the base shiny rate of 1 in 450. Like other Special Research, it will end with fighting Giovanni and probably getting a Shadow Mewtwo, though we’ll wait a second to confirm that. Shiny Hunting Score: 7/10. Likewise, during a Raid Battle, the Raid Boss always appears non-Shiny during battle, but it may become Shiny during the bonus challenge.

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Upon capturing a Shiny Pokémon in the wild, its name is shown in yellow text instead of white. All Pokémon seen in the overworld appear non-Shiny, but when a player attempts to capture a Pokémon, it may appear as a Shiny Pokémon. Extrapolating even further, all the other boosted shiny rates for Field Research, hatches, and Raids might be boosted to 1 in 50. This rate has been highly consistent across species.

But the Research Group will continue our work collecting data on shiny Pokémon for many months to come, and our understanding will continue to grow. For instance, Deino has a 4% hatch rate from 10km eggs, with its shiny too! The final shiny rate boost left to explore is in Pokemon acquired from Field Research encounters.

As mentioned above, Deino’s shiny form is also available and according to the 12KM Eggs hatching survey Deino’s hatch rate is less than 2%. Knowing that some shiny Pokemon have “Boosted” odds (such as Scyther, Onix and Sneasel) I usually only wait until a large nest has a nest of one of these Pokémon before bothering to hunt there.

That’s what we’ve got!

Hatching an egg on the Road is often a pleasant surprise – but one of the most exciting surprises in Pokémon GO is hatching a shiny Pokémon! Alternatively, there is the potential for Researchers to forget to note that some hatches were shiny, leading to the opposite bias.

Your email address will not be published. As for raids, while legendary Pokemon shiny rates seemed fixed at 1:19, raid-exclusive Pokemon like Absol and Mawhile appear to have individual shiny rates. We're updating our policies! Three-hour Limited Research events have used both of these rates. In the first part of this series, we examined shiny rates for boosted wild Pokémon encounters and identified three commonly-used boosted rates. But thanks to Aerodactyl and Absol, the Field Research encounter shiny boost has been identified and will now be studied in greater depth! 1) you're telling me non-baby Pokemon are still a 1:450 Shiny rate from Eggs? Egg Hatches.

Have a few other friends and the same think.

In the three subsequent events, our Researchers recorded the following observations: From Bulbapedia, the community-driven Pokémon encyclopedia. How lucky am I to get 2 Shiny Shinx in 30 encounters (only about 10 of them being hatched). During Adventure Week, an Aerodactyl encounter was rewarded for completing the task “Evolve an Omanyte or Kabuto.” Silph Researchers completed 6,390 of these tasks and found 108 shiny Aerodactyl in the process.

The “Permaboost” rate is used for at least a dozen Pokémon that can be found in the wild and whose shiny rate appears to be permanently much higher than the usual rate. Our 95% confidence interval (CI) for this rate is 24.4 to 25.1 encounters per shiny. In all, our researchers hatched 1,442 baby Pokémon (specifically) over the course of this controlled study, of which 31 were shiny. (Sometimes those higher evos can be shiny in special raid events.).

Next, a variety of boosted Raid boss shiny rates were discovered and a more accurate Community Day shiny rate was calculated (see Part II).
(10 times the base rate). Shiny Pokémon are represented by a icon. One striking observation is that data from the Egg hatching project consistently yields slightly more conservative shiny rates than the other projects do. What can we make of all this?

As clarity on these rates develops further, additional research findings will follow. Shiny Pokémon from Raid Battles and from Team GO Rocket have a 100% catch rate when successfully hit with a Premier Ball.


Assuming these are correct, we could proceed onward to speculating the less certain boosted rates with compatible multiples. This falls well within the expected range for the 1 in 50 rate seen across all events. Hi, gamers! With that data two clearly boosted rates from Field Research appeared: Aerodactyl and Absol!

The preceding table combines data from several different Research Group projects, including our regular shiny-tracking project, several Task Forces, and our ongoing project tracking the distribution of the Pokémon GO Egg pool. There are also Community Days, where one Pokémon appears everywhere in the wild with a boosted shiny rate (around 1/25). The base shiny rate for Wild Encounters is a little trickier. Unlike the main series games, shinies in Pokémon GO are much more common - the standard rate is believed to be around 1 in 512 (compared to 1 in 4096 in the console games). Learn More ». Assuming that shiny rates are not limited to powers of 2, we might speculate that another integer value is instead employed as the denominator of the base shiny rate which would be divided to derive each of the “boosted” rates.

Let’s dive in!

In most cases only the base form may be shiny in the wild - for example a Squirtle found in the wild could be shiny, but its evolutions Wartortle and Blastoise cannot. As noted previously, the preliminary shiny rate for egg species, Raid bosses, and Field Research encounters that are also available from Wild Encounters are similar to the shiny rates from Wild Encounters. The significant difference between Absol and Mawile rates reported in Part 2 of this series could be consequence of chance or, though unlikely, the result of reporting bias in our Mawile reports over Absol reports. The Community Day rate is used (you guessed it!) This tells us that Niantic wants players to spend some $, buy PokeCoins and Incubators to increase the chances of hatching Shiny Deino.


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