When credit collapsed, spending collapsed with it so they had to print money. Reuniting China by regaining the territories that were taken away during the âCentury of Humiliationâ was also a very important long-term goal. This was very concerning to me. Letâs now take a look at these wars with the lessons from history and the principles they provide in mind. This approach of printing money to buy debt (called debt monetization) is vastly more politically palatable as a way of getting money and shifting wealth from those who have it to those who need it than imposing taxes, which leads taxed people to get angry. For the first time in my lifetime, the United States is encountering a rival power. Concerning the first of these problems, think of debt as negative earnings and a negative asset that eats up earnings (because earnings have to go to pay it) and eats up other assets (because other assets have to be sold to get the money to pay the debt). I will start by passing along three principles of mine about relationships that pertain to all relationshipsâbetween people, between organizations, etc.âincluding the US-China relationship. Still, I also know from experience that if I waited to learn enough to be satisfied with my knowledge, Iâd never be able to use or convey what I have learned. If the United States shuts off Chinese access to essential technologies that would signal a major step up in war risks. Still there is a lot that knowledgeable people agree on, and I have found many scholars and practitioners, both Chinese and non-Chinese, who have valuable bits that make the exercise of trying to piece them togetherâalong with other bits of history like statistics and written historiesâvery valuable as well as damned fascinating. For example, in the real economy, when the level of goods and services demanded is strong and rising and the capacity to produce those things demanded is limited, the real economyâs capacity to grow is limited and, if demand keeps rising faster than the capacity to produce, inflation rises. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of Bridgewater ® Associates, LP. Though I wonât explain the various ways of doing that here, they were explained in my book Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises, which you can get online for free here. To make matters worse droughts in the US and in the Soviet Union soon followed. When there are capital controls that prevent the free exchange of oneâs domestic currency internationally that currency is more susceptible to being devalued, which is also why one of the standards for being a reserve currency is that there are no capital controls on it. As history has shown and as explained in the appendix to Chapter 2, âThe Changing Value of Money,â when there is a great increase in money and credit, it drives down the value of money and credit, which drives up the value of other investment assetsâmuch like Nixonâs August 1971 move, which led me to realize that it was the same as Rooseveltâs March 1933 move, which was like Volckerâs August 1982 move, which was like Ben Bernankeâs November 2008 move, which was like Mario Draghiâs July 2012 move, and has become standard operating procedure by central banks that will persist until that approach no longer works.
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