The share with a high school degree or less education has fallen sharply over the past 25 years, from 48% to 33% of all registered voters. Democratic Edge in Party Affiliation Shrinks. However, the Democratic Party’s standing with Millennials is about the same as it was at earlier points, including 2014. At the same time, the GOP now runs about even with the Democratic Party among voters without a college degree after trailing among this group at the end of the George W. Bush administration. Among Millennials, 42% identify as independents, compared with 35% of Gen Xers, 30% of Baby Boomers and 25% of Silents. Looking at the electorate through a generational lens, Millennials (ages 24 to 39 in 2020), who now constitute a larger share of the population than other cohorts, also are more Democratic leaning than older generations: 54% of Millennials identify with the Democratic Party or lean Democratic, while 38% identify with or lean to the GOP. Southern voters in urban counties are less likely than their Northeastern counterparts to identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party (55% vs. 72%). As a result of these contrasting trends, there is now a 19-point gap in the shares who identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party between white voters with a college degree and those without one (54% vs. 35%). It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. In the Northeast, the urban-rural gap is roughly the same size as it has been for most of the past two decades, and rural voters there have become more likely to identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party over time. However, English-speaking Asian American voters have shifted toward the Democratic Party. Overall, the Democratic Party holds a 68% to 27% advantage in leaned party identification over the GOP among all Jewish voters. For example, 72% of voters in the Northeast who live in urban counties associate with the Democratic Party, compared with 49% of Northeastern voters who live in rural counties. In 1994, a greater share of those with at least a college degree identified with or leaned toward the GOP than the Democratic Party (50% vs. 42%). Much of the movement toward the Republican Party among white voters without a college degree has been driven by those with the lowest levels of education – voters with no more than a high school diploma. Among white voters with a college degree, those with some postgraduate experience stand out for their strong Democratic orientation. There has been less change among white voters with some college experience but no four-year degree. The Democratic Party’s advantage with more highly educated voters has grown over the past decade and is wider than it was in both 2016 and 2012. By federal law, election officials do not begin counting ballots until Election Day, although they may start the process of preparing ballots for counting in advance. Eight-in-ten white evangelicals who attend religious services at least a few times a month associate with the GOP, compared with 70% of those who attend services less often. The Republican Party holds an advantage among white voters in older generations. A majority of registered voters with at least a four-year college degree (57%) identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, while 37% associate with the GOP. Around eight-in-ten Republican registered voters (79%) are Christians, compared with about half (52%) of Democratic voters. And among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, half are 50 and older, up from 41% in 1996. Among black voters, 83% identify or lean toward the Democratic Party, compared with just 10% who say they are Republican or lean toward the GOP. Both groups are far more Democratic in their partisan preferences than in 1994, though the movement toward the Democratic Party has been slightly greater among women than men. In addition to the distinct partisan preferences expressed by different racial and ethnic groups, demographic changes in the country drive shifts in the composition of all registered voters. Among Silent Generation voters, the Democratic Party has improved its standing somewhat with both men and women. The current 21-point gap in GOP affiliation between white women with and without a college degree is larger than the 11-point education gap among white men. So what does the 2020 electorate look like politically, demographically and religiously as the race between Republican President Donald Trump and Democrat Joe Biden enters its final days? But the share of voters with a college degree has risen substantially since 1996, when 24% had one. There are distinctions in party identification among voters who have at least a four-year degree and those who have not completed college. Last updated: 11/02/2020 09:40 PM Eastern Time, Michael McDonald • Professor, University of Florida The Democratic Party also holds a clear advantage over the GOP in leaned party identification among Hispanic voters (63% to 29%), though the margin is not as large as among black voters. In 1994, white voters with at least some postgraduate experience were about evenly divided between the GOP and the Democratic Party, while those with a four-year degree were significantly more Republican than Democratic (59% to 34%). Both groups of voters have moved toward the Republican Party over time, though the shift has been more pronounced among white Catholics. This marks a change from 2017, when the GOP held a 52% to 43% advantage in leaned party identification among the oldest voters. Partisanship has become increasingly tied to religious identification over the past quarter century. Democrats have held the edge in party identification among registered voters since 2004. Over the past 25 years, there’s been a fundamental shift in the relationship between level of educational attainment and partisanship. Non-Hispanic White Americans make up the largest share of registered voters in the U.S., at 69% of the total as of 2019. The combination of a global pandemic and public concerns about the integrity of the election have created widespread uncertainty, and that uncertainty makes it even more difficult than usual to assess who will vote and who won’t. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. One such shift is that the Democratic Party’s advantage over the Republican Party in party identification has become smaller since 2017. Across all generations, the Democratic Party now holds an edge among women in leaned party affiliation (though the size of their advantage is larger among younger than older generations). And Gen X women are now almost as likely as Millennial women to associate with the Democratic Party (57% to 60%). Gen Xers and Baby Boomers have seen less change in their partisan preferences and remain closely divided between the two major parties. Among men, a larger share of independent voters – and voters who don’t align with either major party – lean toward the GOP than the Democratic Party, while the balance of partisan leaning among women who identify as independents runs in the opposite direction. Another way to consider the aging of the electorate is to look at median age. White Americans accounted for 67% of eligible voters nationally in 2018, but they represented a much larger share in several key battlegrounds in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, including Wisconsin (86%), Ohio (82%), Pennsylvania (81%) and Michigan (79%). The GOP now enjoys a two-to-one advantage over the Democratic Party among white voters with no more than a high school diploma (62% to 31%). Among white voters with a college degree but no postgraduate experience, 49% identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, while 46% identify with or lean toward the Republican Party. By contrast, men and women with a college degree are significantly more Democratic in their orientation than 25 years ago. The share of registered voters who identify with the Republican Party is up 3 percentage points, from 26% in 2017, while there has been no change in the share who identify as Democrats. (+1) 202-857-8562 | Fax Between 1994 and 2010, nonwhite men with a college degree were slightly more Republican in their partisan leanings than those without a degree, but this gap has closed in recent years. Among men with a college degree, 48% identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, while 46% of these voters identify with or lean toward the GOP. Comparable majorities of white Gen X (54%), Baby Boomer (55%) and Silent (56%) voters identify with or lean toward the GOP. Around a third of registered voters in the U.S. (34%) identify as independents, while 33% identify as Democrats and 29% identify as Republicans, according to a Center analysis of Americans’ partisan identification based on surveys of more than 12,000 registered voters in 2018 and 2019.

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